Forecasting the number of cases and deaths from Covid-19

Abstract

Objective: The aim of this publication is to analyze the value of the number of new cases and deaths from COVID-19 in selected European Union countries: Poland, France and Belgium.
Research Design & Methods: Data were collected from the on-line database: https://covid.ourworldindata.org/ data/owid-covid-data.xlsx, which demonstrate the daily number of new cases and deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The forecast was based on a linear trend function and a 7-period moving average, using Statistica 13 software.
Findings: The test results facilitated an evaluation of the diversity in the number of cases and the number of deaths in the assessed countries. Implications & Recommendations: From the obtained results, it can be concluded that the pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus will end in 2021, about a year after the first case that appeared in Europe, provided that the vaccines are also effective against the mutated form of the virus.
Implications & Recommendations: Based on the results obtained by China, where the pandemic ended after a year, it can be assumed that EU countries will also win the fight against Covid-19 at a similar time provided that the vaccines are also effective against the mutated forms of the virus. This is indicated by the results of research obtained in this paper. However, it should be remembered that the pandemic is unpredictable and it is difficult to predict the values of variables for a longer period of time.
Contribution & Value Added: The article indicates the methods of combating Covid-19 in selected countries of the European Union.

Keywords

Epidemiology, COVID-19, forecasting, trend function, moving average method

Author Biography

Aldona Migała-Warchoł

PhD in Economics, Assistant Professor at the Quantitative Methods Department, Rzeszow University of Technology in Poland. Her main scientific interests concern the application of statistical analysis methods (including multidimensional statistical analysis) in aspects related to issues of quality and standard of human life (using survey data, measured on weak scales and data from statistical reports, measured on strong scales). Recently, her scientific interests cover the modelling of socio-economic development and its determinants in the European Union countries.

Monika Pichla

PhD Student in Biology, Rzeszów University, Poland. Her main scientific interests involve the screening for novel anti- cancer and neurodegenerative drugs and their future application in medicine. Privately, she is interested in the news of pharmaceutical industry and in clinical psychology.

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