Forecasting the development of renewable energy sources in the Visegrad Group countries against the background of the European Union

Abstract

Objective: The aim of the article was to forecast the necessary pace of changes in the share of RES in the V4 countries resulting from the EU’s renewable energy sources directive compared to other European Union countries.

Research Design & Methods: The research area included all EU Member States, and in particular the Visegrad Group countries. Forecasts of future RES share values were based on two models: Holt-Winters and the autoregressive (AR) model based on EUROSTAT statistical data.

Findings: The potential failure to meet the recommendations of the RES share in gross final energy consumption for 2022 concerns 19 of the 27 Member States, of which 2 countries belong to the Visegrad Group.

Implications & Recommendations: The research has implications mainly to raise awareness of the direction of RES development in the European Union countries.

Contribution & Value Added: The study contributes to the estimation of the future value of the share of renewable energy sources in the V4 countries compared to other countries European Union on the basis of the current activities of these Member States. The forecast makes it possible to initially determine the possibility of meeting the specific target regarding the share of renewable energy sources in the final energy consumption set out in the European Union directive.
Article type: research article

Keywords

prediction of green energy development, RES in the European Union, Holt-Winters model, economic analysis, autoregressive model

Author Biography

Krzysztof Adam Firlej

PhD in economics. Works at the Department of Microeconomics, Cracow University of Economics (Poland). His research interests focus on innovativeness, intellectual capital, renewable energy sources, energy policy and climate policy in European Union.

Marcin Stanuch

Master of Engineering, lecturer and researcher at the University of Economics in Cracow. He was previously employed as a programmer in various firms. In his research, he focuses on issues of financial market and aspects of energy security.

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